Effective estimation is one of the toughest challenges software developers face in their jobs. Regardless of team size, they need to define, estimate, and distribute work throughout a team. As teams get larger, it becomes even more important to build good habits around planning and estimating work. Lack of planning and estimating reduce confidence in a program, breaks down relationships between the team and the business, and makes development harder on everyone.
Ryan Edge Productivity. Add to Wishlist. Planning poker is a consensus-based, gamified technique for estimating commonly used to. South Point Poker is the exclusive online poker room of the South Point Hotel, Casino & Spa in Las Vegas, Nevada. Our aim is to provide all poker fans a free online destination to play and to learn poker. Players can win up to $100K in cash and prizes every month, and your wins are 100% guaranteed by the South Point Casino.
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According to some study on the accuracy of estimation of effort between individual and group in an experiment for a software project. 20 software professionals from the same company individually estimated the work effort required to implement the same software development project. The participants had different background and roles and the software project had previously been implemented. After that, they formed five groups. Each group agreed on one estimation by discussing and combining of the knowledge among them.
Result – The estimates based on group discussions were more accurate than the individual estimates.
Planning poker (also known as Scrum poker) is a consensus-based, gamified technique for estimating, mostly used to estimate effort or relative size of development goals in software development.
Steps for Planning Poker
By hiding the figures in this way, the group can avoid the cognitive bias of anchoring, where the first number spoken aloud sets a precedent for subsequent estimates.
An estimate is nothing more than a well educated guess. We use all the knowledge and experience at hand to make a guess about the amount of time it is going to take. So instead of looking at every new work item separately, why not compare it to previously finished work items? It’s easier for humans to relate to similar items than to guess the actual size of things anyway.
For example, is it closer to this really small thing? Or is it more like this normal sized item? Or is it really huge like that one piece of work we finished last month? Doing relative estimates will not only reduce the amount of time spent on estimating work, it will also heavily increase the accuracy of the estimates.
Our brain is not capable of doing absolute estimates; we always put that new thing that we need to estimate in relationship to things we already know.
Planning Poker uses of the Fibonacci sequence to assign a point value to a feature or user story. Openbet new betting sites. The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical series of numbers that was introduced in the 13th century and used to explain certain formative aspects of nature, such as the branching of trees. The series is generated by adding the two previous numbers together to get the next value in the sequence: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on.
For agile estimation purposes, some of the numbers have been changed, resulting in the following series: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100 as shown in the Figure below:
The Interpretation of the point assigned to a poker card is listed in the table below:
|0||Task is already completed.|
|1/2||The task is tiny.|
|1, 2, 3||These are used for small tasks.|
|5, 8, 13||These are used for medium sized tasks.|
|20, 40||These are used for large tasks.|
|100||These are used for very large tasks.|
|<infinity>||The task is huge.|
|?||No idea how long it takes to complete this task.|
|<cup of coffee>||I am hungry 🙂|
So why use story points instead of time values? Story pointing allows the team to focus on the complexity and time involved in delivering a piece of work. The team compares the new work against work they’ve already done. They compare the complexity of the new assignment against past challenges and rank the difficulty as well as the time required.
For example, we don’t often account for “the cost of doing business.” Meetings, email, code reviews, etc. with time values. But in reality, all these are necessary practices throughout in our daily life, but don’t actually count as “work.” Story points isolate the software development work from the associated logistic work items, so estimates using point based should more consistent than hour base approach.
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In a recent magazine article, poker guru Ed Miller discussed preflop play for $1-$2 no-limit hold’em. He offers a checklist of six “principles.” Great! But, he makes one statement that should be corrected – at least for low-limit games:
“If you think like everyone else, you will play like everyone else, and you will lose the table rake – about $10 an hour.”
All things being equal, in the long run, an average low-limit player will lose much more than $10 an hour with a rake of $5 per hand.
Explanation: Thirty to 40 hands are dealt each hour of play – averaging about 35 hands per hour. (Check it out yourself.) Hence, the rake-per-hour is $5 x 35 = $175. With nine players at the table that’s almost $20 an hour for each. With fewer players, that $5 rake will cost even more.
In addition to the rake, there’s also the Bad Beat Jackpot drop – $1 per hand – another $35 an hour for the table, or about $4 per hour for each player. Then there’s the tip to the dealer. In a low-limit game, that adds up to almost $30 an hour per player if the table is full – more if the table is not full.
Buy-in for $100, and it will have cost the average low-limit player all of that after 3 to 4 hours.
But, your goal is to go home a winner. Poker is a game of skill. Being highly skilled, you play much better than the average player.
Luck – chance – is also a key factor. You cannot influence which card in the deck might next be dealt. But, you can control how you play your hand and influence your opponents’ play – making luck less significant. Basically, that’s what Miller’s checklist is all about.
Starting-hand selection is important. “If you’re out of position, play about 15 percent of your hands. If you are on the button, play about 35 percent.”
Using the Hold’em Algorithm those percentages are correct. More important, the algorithm also provides the criteria for selecting those hands. Avoiding poor starting-hands – playing moderately tight – you are less likely to lose. And, you rise above the average player.
Avoid strength. Tight players rarely raise. If one does, assume he has a strong hand; play accordingly. Observing their tells can also help. That gains you a big edge. And, you rise above the average player.
Attack weakness. Some opponents play too many hands preflop; most will be weak. “When you suspect your opponents are in with weak hands, you should attack them with raises… Be aggressive when your opponents don’t tag themselves with strength preflop.”
Don’t try to make Hands. Don’t think/play your hands like everyone else; if so, “you will lose the table rake.” Example: “If your opponents are limping, they’re probably weak… Attack them with a raise – even if your hand isn’t so great either.”
Good advice for no-limit games where you can size the bet to force out those opponents. In limit games, use the Esther Bluff.
Take this principle one step further: Don’t chase post-flop when you have fewer than six outs, especially if there is a raise. Consider if the pot is big enough to give you a Positive Expectation.
Choose hands that have equity when called. “If you think you will be able to play aggressively on a wide range of flops… you have a hand worth playing.”
Miller prefers hands like 8-7 suited over A-4 offsuit as 8-7 suited “hits a wide range of flops, ensuring that you have equity.”
Defend blinds against steals, not strong raises. This is essentially a restatement of Miller’s principles (2) and (3), applied to hands when you are in the blinds. “When your opponent makes a raise that is likely to be a steal, defend with… re-raises and calls.”
Miller closes: “Avoid strength. Attack weakness.” Good advice.